In May 2020, non-essential services reopened for trading. New Zealand moved from Level 4 to Level 3 on 27 April 2020 and the drop down to Level 2 happened on 13 May 2020. The “new normal” at Level 1 started on 9 June 2020.
Because of the Government assistance that has been provided to businesses, we anticipate that the economic effects of the Lockdown will be seen over a longer period of time than in previous economic slowdowns. Many businesses experienced a surge in trading activity when they reopened at Level 3 and another spike in revenue at the start of Level 2 but few businesses have seen consistent revenue week on week since reopening.
The budget announcement was made on 14 May 2020 and further support measures for businesses were also announced in May 2020. Some economists are now predicting that the coming recession will be deeper, and the economic recovery will be longer, than Treasury’s current forecasts. Many SMEs that have been taking a “wait and see” approach are hoping that further Government financial support will continue to be made available and that that support will be enough to allow their revenue to return so that their businesses can survive in the medium term.
So how have New Zealand’s May 2020 company insolvency figures shaped up as the country moved down the alert levels?
Company Insolvencies – Liquidations, Receiverships, and Voluntary Administrations
There were 158 company insolvency appointments in May 2020, which is roughly 22% lower than the appointments in May 2019 (193) and May 2018 (204).
Insolvency appointments to May 2020 total 673, which is 17% fewer than 2019 (806) and 28% fewer than in 2018 (923).
Personal Insolvencies - Bankruptcy
The personal insolvency figures for May 2020 have not yet been released by the Government. In both May 2019 and May 2018, there was an increase in the number of personal insolvencies when compared to April and June of the same years.
Since the beginning of 2018, month on month, the proportion of people entering into the No Asset Procedure (for those with up to $50,000 in debt, no assets, and no ability to repay their debts) and those being made bankrupt has been fairly evenly split. If the corporate insolvency figures increase as predicted, we expect that bankruptcies will make up a larger proportion of the personal insolvencies going forward. We anticipate that corporate insolvency rates will increase before personal insolvency rates do, as many creditors do not call upon personal guarantees until after a company has failed.
Moving Forward – What Might Be On The Horizon?
The Government assistance for businesses announced to date has contributed to the low number of insolvencies in the year to date. Once that financial assistance has been depleted, most will feel the recession start to bite. In preparation, businesses should be evaluating their revenue forecasts and looking at reducing their overheads and streamlining their businesses so that they are in the best position they can be moving forward.
There will be opportunities ahead for those in a position to take advantage of them. Those that are not currently taking active steps to prepare for the future risk waiting too long.
In the last few weeks, we have seen an increase in the number of clients who are moving away from the “wait and see” approach and have decided to actively prepare for the months ahead. We are currently assisting clients in a number of different industries to address the vulnerabilities they are seeing in their businesses. The earlier these concerns are acknowledged and addressed, the more options businesses have to deal with these issues.