In our 37th Insolvency by the Numbers, we look at our data set for November 2023 and past years to see how the month has tracked and what may be coming up in the coming months.
We now have a coalition sorted giving people an idea of what is in store for the next 3 years, the Reserve Bank has kept the OCR stable and has said that rates will not be coming down till 2025 as expected. With Christmas fast approaching businesses are rushing around trying to complete work for customers before the year end when the customer has had all year to get it sorted but left it to the last minute, so business as normal for this time of year really.
As seen in the trend from prior months the elevated appointment level continues rather than peaks and troughs seen over prior years. We did see a slight drop off in appointments from 2022.
The big change for November saw a increase above the long term average of 40 appointments all channelled into insolvent liquidations, anecdotally this could be the result of the election and shareholders realising it has not fixed all their problems and the business is no longer viable so best to deal with it prior to Christmas. All other appointment types were right on their long term average numbers.
With 1 month to go it appears unlikely that 2023 will catch 2017 & 2018 appointments.
As detailed in past months we are seeing a continued consistent increase in figures evening out compared to the usual spike we see in June/July and November. So, a longer sustained lift rather than a spike and drop off.
In November, there has been a consistent shift in the total number of winding up applications compared to past Novembers. For example, in November 2021, there were 33 applications, with 20 being company winding up applications and 13 being IRD winding up applications. November 2022 witnessed a substantial increase, with 98 total applications, including 25 company winding up applications and 73 IRD winding up applications. In November 2023, there were 76 applications, consisting of 22 company winding up applications and 54 IRD winding up applications.
From the below graph we continue to see that IRD’s November 2023 winding up applications now makes up just over 2/3rds of all creditors a jump back up to the June – August split. There are clearly still many delinquent debtors being pursued.
Personal insolvency appointments have finally done something after a lacklustre 2023. Time will tellif this is the start of an upward trend in appointments or just a 1 off instance while we wait for personal insolvencies to mirror corporate and pick up.
The signs continue to point to the NZ economy being in for continued pain for the foreseeable future with it likely to get worse before it gets better, we foresee continued rising appointment for the next year. The OCR is unlikely to be dropped till mid-2025 and inflation just keeps biting.
In our 36th Insolvency by the Numbers, we look at our data set for October 2023 and past years to see how the month has tracked and what may be coming up in the coming months.
With October and the election finally at an end, except for specials, we have an indication of what party will be front footing it into the next 3 years. The consensus that came out over the election campaign however was that getting back on the good footing may take some time, with cuts in government spending appearing to be an interesting topic. Whether this happens only time will tell, but hopefully we will see a bit of stability in the housing market and NZ stock market.
Company insolvency appointments for October 2023 combined across all insolvency types continue to outnumber all years back to 2019. As seen in the trend from prior months the higher level continues rather than peaks and troughs seen over prior years. We did see a slight drop off in appointments across the middle of the month anecdotally the result of the mid-month election, but it did pick back up after. The month does remain slightly down on the last 4 months appointments however.