Economic recap
With inflation figures for the final quarter of 2021 coming in at 6%, it was of no surprise that the OCR would be getting a lift from the Reserve Bank, the question was how much? Last month we mentioned the possibility of a 50-basis point lift with a few commentators backing this size lift. We ended up seeing a 25-point lift with the Reserve Bank using strong language that the next OCR review would likely see the rate lift 50 basis points.
The consensus seems to be that with the invasion of Ukraine, we will see inflation continue its upward trend for the year. Adding to the trend are the food cost increases and the possibility petrol prices will tip $3 per litre before too long. Depending on how high it goes is yet to be seen, there has been mention of inflation at 10% by the end of the year and petrol at $5per litre. While this may seem a long way to go from our current levels, we still have many months to go in 2022. No doubt our council rates review due out in March 2022 will show a lift in rates prices for all homeowners causing more inflation pressure.
Recent house sale volumes to date show a fall in sales for the January period, as pressures continue to mount on borrowers making financing more difficult to obtain. For SME’s business lending continues to remain difficult unless secured over a property but even that will come under pressure with the expectation of falling property values.
Cashflow should in our opinion be the business owners primary focus alongside a focus on the quality of any expenditure. For example review whether your cash outflows are paying core debts/trading obligations or being applied to payment default costs/interest. Is your business getting ahead or likely to. Are you favouring one party over others? You should not be without advice.
With increasing Omicron cases day by day, the peak is expected by the end of March; the government has introduced further business support. The comparison period is for the 6 weeks prior to 15 February which includes the Christmas period, a traditionally quieter period for businesses, meaning that this will be a difficult support payment for businesses to qualify for. At present Hospitality and Retail continue to struggle, as people treat the rising cases as reason to maintain a self-imposed lockdown and everyone now seems to know someone who has Omicron.
Company Insolvencies – Liquidations, Receiverships, and Voluntary Administrations
Corporate appointments for January 2022 are similar to figures from previous years. As expected, court appointments over this period are non-existent given the Christmas closedown for Solicitors and Courts.
66% of the liquidation appointments are made up by insolvent shareholder appointments, the remaining appointments are solvent shareholder appointments.
To date it looks like the February appointments will follow past year trends but whether they will reach the 2020 and earlier year levels, we will only know at the end February.
Insolvency by Industry
“Construction & Property” industry company appointments continue to make up the largest sector. These figures include both solvent and insolvent appointments. “Accommodation and Foods Services” have risen to 3rd following Financial and Insurance Services. These three sectors total over 50% of the total appointments for January 2022.
Personal Insolvencies – Bankruptcy, No Asset Procedure and Debt Repayment Orders.
Personal insolvency levels are at their lowest all-time levels since all 3 personal insolvency options became available to the public.
Of the of personal insolvencies figures, No Asset Procedures made up just under 50% of all insolvency procedures.
Winding Up Applications
Based off the numbers that were seen in December 2021, it is hard to not go up from here. As with any build back up, this will take time, in addition to the bulk of solicitors and professional services firms taking at least half of January off as happens every year with the Christmas closedown.
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