Economic recap
With the third quarter of 2022 inflation results coming in at 7.2 well above a number of economists and banks predictions of 6.5 we will likely be seeing jumps in the OCR at a steeper rate than expected with the next rate rise projected to be 75 – 100 basis points up from the prior estimation of 50 points. This will keep the pressure on homeowners with mortgages and businesses with lending as consumers role off fixed rates. With inflation well above the target levels of 1%-3% business continue to struggle on with constrained capacity and labour issues.
Leading into the Christmas period we will no doubt see the seasonal jump in retail sales followed by regional growth as holiday makers vacate the city centres for the traditional January break away. How this will affect insolvency figures will no doubt follow the usual course as businesses wind down as they head into Christmas and courts close for the break we will see the usual lower Dec and Jan figures. The question will be in the lead up months of Oct and Nov will the heightened levels seen in the last 3 months carry on, time will tell.
Company Insolvencies – Liquidations, Receiverships, and Voluntary Administrations
Corporate insolvency appointments in September saw the usual drop for this time of year but appointments for the month remain above the past two years, likely a result of elevated winding up applications from the past two months beginning to flow through with a chance to remain elevated to the end of the year.
What we did see during the month was the continued elevation in Receivership appointments at 9 however total appointments remain below the 2021 levels at this stage.
Winding Up Applications
September saw a continuation in the gradual drop-in total appointments, but the levels remain in the higher end of appointment in the 2022 year when compared with earlier months. From the above graph you can see the drop was directly attributable to the IRD drop in winding up applications. This is likely in part due to the end of year wind down as IRD collection slow in the lead up to Christmas and won’t kick off again till February.
The above figures are however difficult to compare to August/September 2021 due to the lock down that took place at that time.
Personal Insolvencies – Bankruptcy, No Asset Procedure and Debt Repayment Orders.
Personal insolvencies have seen a lift on past months numbers largely related to Debt Repayment Orders and No Asset Procedures. While September 2022 is above the 2021 figures these are not an accurate comparison as we were in lockdown at this time last year.
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