Items filtered by date: May 2024 - McDonald Vague Insolvency

In our 41st Insolvency by the Numbers, we look at our data set for April 2024. We review how the month has tracked compared to prior months and years.

In the last month we have seen the latest release of unemployment data showing a rise to 4.3% for the March 2024 quarter, with expectation that it may continue to increase. We have seen a decrease in inflation driven largely by tradeable inflation, meanwhile the non-tradeable inflation continues to remain high, showing we still have some work to do to get over inflation in NZ.

The Reserve Bank has continued with no change to the OCR during the month with the next announcement due in May 2024 hoping to shed some light on when there will be a reduction, economists have revised their estimates to late 2024 or early 2025.

Anecdotally the uptake seen in media enquiries into new appointments has continued, leading to with steady coverage in local and regional news media of the variety of appointments being taken by insolvency practitioners with special emphasis on the number and quantum of creditors left out of pocket.

Company Insolvencies – Liquidations, Receiverships, and Voluntary Administrations

 

While April 2024 insolvency appointments saw a drop in March hights we have continued the trend seen so far this year being up on past years. Total appointments for the month were 193. April 2024 is 25% up on the long-term average of 148 monthly appointments.

2024 continues showing strong appointment figures well exceeding the last 7 years for the cumulative total of the 4 months to date. As predicted April figures were up again. It definitely highlights the steady drop seen up to 2022 and the quick resurgence in insolvency work that has taken place this year to date and in 2023.

 

As a percentage spread compared to the average, we have seen solvent liquidations take a drop down 7% in April to 8% while insolvent shareholder appointments and receiverships have increased comparatively.

We expect increases across all types of appointments to continue throughout 2024 and into 2025.

 

Winding Up Applications

 

April 2024, the trend continued with 88 applications, marking a slight increase from the previous year but still reflecting a robust level of activity compared to pandemic times which saw 10 applications during that first lockdown. Among these, 38 were attributed to company winding-ups, while 50 were linked to proceedings initiated by the Inland Revenue Department (IRD).

It has now been 13 months since the IRD advertised less winding up applications than every other non-creditor combined. The IRD continues its drive to collect the current level of arrears from delinquent debtors. This will likely be ongoing for several years as they work through a steady backlog.

 

Personal Insolvencies – Bankruptcy, No Asset Procedure and Debt Repayment Orders.

 

In February 2024, there were 38 bankruptcy filings, 34 no asset procedures, and 6 debt repayment orders, totalling 78. Personal insolvency figures remain stagnant as seen over the past few years. We expect that we will not see a significant rise in personal insolvency till into the 2nd half of 2024. Notably you can see in the above graph how they have historically tracked corporate insolvency appointments, this trend has changed in the last 6 months with a large difference in the last 2.

 

Where to from here?

The signs continue to point to the NZ economy being in for continued pain for the foreseeable future with it likely to get worse before it gets better, we foresee continued rising appointments when compared to prior years months as the year progresses. The OCR is unlikely to be dropped in the next 6 months potentially 1 year and inflation continues to be above the target of 2% and may be for some years with non-tradable inflation refusing to come under control.

If you want to have a chat about any points raised or an issue you may have you can call on 0800 30 30 34 or email This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it..